Agenda item

The Planning Policy Manager presented a report which set out a case for the publication of the Council’s Statement of Five Year Land Supply for 2019-2024 calculated on 2016 household projections on the basis of ‘exceptional circumstances’ instead of using the 2014 figures required by the Government, following the receipt of specialist advice in respect of local housing needs for North Norfolk.

The Planning Policy Manager explained how the Five Year Land Supply was calculated.  Using the 2014 household projections, North Norfolk could demonstrate a 4.5 year land supply, based on an annual requirement for 581 dwellings.  However, the consultants’ view was that the 2014 figures were sufficiently flawed that they should not be relied upon.  The Planning Policy Manager referred to an appeal case at Sculthorpe at which the Inspector had ruled that on the balance of evidence presented by this Authority, the 2014 forecasts were an unreliable starting point for calculating need in the District.  He also referred to a case in Central Bedfordshire which was currently subject to a High Court challenge.  He explained that the 2016 household projections had produced a significantly slower growth rate than the 2014 projections.  Applying the standard methodology to the 2016 projections resulted in an annual requirement of 479 dwellings which meant that the Council could demonstrate a 5.5 year land supply.  This stance was likely to be challenged through the planning process and it would be for Planning Inspectors to decide if the Council’s argument was robust.  He recommended the publication of the Five Year Land Supply Statement on that basis.

The Chairman stated that he was astonished that the Government had taken the position that the 2016 statistics could not be used when they took more account of foreseeable population movement.  He asked if the Planning Policy Manager knew the reason for the Government’s stance.

The Planning Policy Manager explained that household forecasts were produced every two years and were trend based taking account of the historic situation.  The Census, conducted every 10 years, provided a sense check.  In North Norfolk, the Census figures indicated much slower growth in North Norfolk than earlier projections had suggested.  The Government was not challenging the 2016 figures and acknowledged that they were robust; however the Government had said that they should not be used as they did not deliver its policy target of 300,000 homes per year.  The 2018 forecasts were due to be published shortly and there was a high probability that they would also show lower growth requirements.  The Government was reviewing its methodology and whilst it was possible that there would be a change in methodology which resulted in different patterns of growth, it was unlikely that the Government would revise its overall target.

Councillor Mrs P Grove-Jones expressed concern that an impossible target had been set for North Norfolk.  There were areas in the north of the country which were desperate for growth and she did not consider that the Government’s methodology would deliver sensible levels of housing throughout the UK.

The Planning Policy Manager explained that all figures were trend based.  Projections in the north of the country would be small due to historic low growth rates.  The standard methodology was a floor and there was nothing in the guidance which prevented Local Planning Authorities setting higher targets.  The standard methodology tended to produce higher numbers in areas which were attractive to retire to.  House prices would escalate if insufficient homes were built to meet the demand.

Councillor Grove-Jones considered that migration for retirement did not help the area economically.  Young people would go elsewhere if they were unable to find jobs or affordable housing.

Councillor Ms V Gay stated that this Authority had always had provision of housing at the top of the agenda, but it had to be reasonable and evidence based.  The current evidence supported a target of 479 dwellings and she proposed that the five year land supply statement be published on that basis. 

Councillor N Dixon considered that the Planning Policy Manager had put forward a compelling and convincing argument for applying the exceptional circumstances provision.  Whilst this was open to challenge, the evidence supported the trend towards a lower growth rate and use of the 2016 projections.  He seconded the proposal.

The Chairman considered that the risk of challenge was one which the Council should take on board and he was confident that the evidence supported the recommended action. 

RESOLVED unanimously

That the Statement of Five Year Land Supply 2019-2024 is published on the basis of a Local Housing Need for 479 dwellings per annum inclusive of a 5% buffer.